DOW Jones dropped below 10,000. People are in fear. Fear creates panic and investors are selling at price below the true value of the company and its equity.
From economics perspective, this sounds right. A correction after more than 3 years of growth. Oil price is coming down to a realistic level. Inflationary pressure is reduced. While it may never be at US$20/barrel, it will be good if price can be around US$50/barrel. This will be beneficial to companies that depend on oil and when cost is influenced by oil price, eg transport companies. The US dollar is appreciating because FED is maintaining a higher interest rate to keep US$ within the country to fight off credit squeeze. But this may hurt US economy by reducing its competitiveness.
The prices of Singapore equities are still high relative to the trough, eg Singtel equity used to be S$2, C&C used to be less than S$10, DBS used to be under S$10. There will be room for more decrease.
The equity market will usually have a time gain of more than 6 months with respect to the actual health of the economy. While the property market will have time lag of more than 6 months. Property prices have yet to fall to a reasonable level. It will when unemployment starts to kick in.
Caveat Emptor
No comments:
Post a Comment