I bought a small number of Goldman Sach equity today at US$87.76. Reasons of purchase:-
(i) Book value of about US$107. So I am buying at US$20 below book value.
(ii) Warren Buffett stock
(iii) Last of the few US investment banks around
(iv) PE value of 5.3
Dividend is miserable at 1.4%. Data is accurate as of today.
Caveat Emptor
Friday, October 31, 2008
Monday, October 27, 2008
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Photos of Pulau Ubin
Pulau Ubin ~ 26 Oct 08
Chinese temple on island ~ where there are chinese, there will be chinese temple
Kampung on the island
Rubber trees grown on island
Balai Quarry - I wonder what the Government will do with this piece of abandoned quarry. There was talk last year on reopening the quarry for mining when the granite chips from Indonesia was disrupted. I supposed that they have resolved the issue.
My bicycle which I rent on Pulau Ubin for S$8/day.
Another view of my bicycle at the Balai Quarry
Chek Jawa Visitor House. Built in the 1930s. It used to be a holiday resort for Dangdon Willams
Pulau Sekudu - A small island off Pulau Ubin
Timber planks placed above the muddy swamp for visitors to enjoy
Mudskipper on the wet land
Chek Jawa Wet Land
While cycling, I saw a wild boar in front crossing my path. By the time I stopped, took out the camera and snapped, the wild boar was already running for cover. The shot was not clear due to hand movement trying to capture the animal in a hurry.
Someone injured being carried on a stretcher onto a medical boat. The injured has blood on her hand and her head was restricted. Probably had a fall and injured the neck. Many city dwellers are not aware of the danger of outdoor activity.
Pulau Ubin - 26 Oct 08
Pulau Ubin is an island about 10-15 minutes boat ride from Singapore, Changi Point Ferry Terminal. The cost per person per trip is S$2.50. The boat can carry about 12 persons with probably 2-3 bikes for an additional S$2 for each bicycle. The boat is very frequent during the weekends and public holidays due to strong demand.
I rent a bicycle for S$8 for the whole day. There are more expensive and cheaper ones. The cheaper ones may not have gears and suffer from high wear and tear. I travelled fom the jetty to Belatok hut, Murai Hut, Beberek Hut, Balai Quarry, Chek Jawa wetlands, Punai Hut, Pekakak Hut, Kelichap Hut and back to Miurai Hut in a clockwise direction.
The terrain has its ups and down. Some portions are steep. Hence it is easy to loose control while travelling. It becomes more danger if the route is earth instead of tarmac. This is because of the presence of mud and potholes. A rider travelling too fast has to apply brake at steep slope instead of letting the bicycle picks up speed downhill, this is because potholes may be at the end of the slope. Rider may be thrown of his bike out if not careful. There are also private bus and jeep travelling on the same route as bicycles. Precaution has to be taken as safety comes first.
When faced with a steep up slope, I will walk and push the bike. I feel that the track and route do not have sufficient signages and information, especially at the junctions. Probably so because the island is not a tourist attraction, unlike Sentosa. Nonetheless, it is a great nature getaway. It is also not so commercialised as Sentosa and retained some of the kampung feel.
Comparing Chek Jawa and Sungei Buloh, I find that the mangroves in Chek Jawa are more defined, not so muddy and less rubbish. I also find Chek Jawa to have fewer mosquitoes. I do notice a few dead fishes floating around in the sea near Chek Jawa. I travelled only on the broadwalk and did not walk on mud land. For birds lover, I have notice that Sungei Buloh has more birds than Chek Jawa.
I spent about 3 hours on the island. The trip was economical, great to burn off the cholestrol and a way to be back to nature again.
I rent a bicycle for S$8 for the whole day. There are more expensive and cheaper ones. The cheaper ones may not have gears and suffer from high wear and tear. I travelled fom the jetty to Belatok hut, Murai Hut, Beberek Hut, Balai Quarry, Chek Jawa wetlands, Punai Hut, Pekakak Hut, Kelichap Hut and back to Miurai Hut in a clockwise direction.
The terrain has its ups and down. Some portions are steep. Hence it is easy to loose control while travelling. It becomes more danger if the route is earth instead of tarmac. This is because of the presence of mud and potholes. A rider travelling too fast has to apply brake at steep slope instead of letting the bicycle picks up speed downhill, this is because potholes may be at the end of the slope. Rider may be thrown of his bike out if not careful. There are also private bus and jeep travelling on the same route as bicycles. Precaution has to be taken as safety comes first.
When faced with a steep up slope, I will walk and push the bike. I feel that the track and route do not have sufficient signages and information, especially at the junctions. Probably so because the island is not a tourist attraction, unlike Sentosa. Nonetheless, it is a great nature getaway. It is also not so commercialised as Sentosa and retained some of the kampung feel.
Comparing Chek Jawa and Sungei Buloh, I find that the mangroves in Chek Jawa are more defined, not so muddy and less rubbish. I also find Chek Jawa to have fewer mosquitoes. I do notice a few dead fishes floating around in the sea near Chek Jawa. I travelled only on the broadwalk and did not walk on mud land. For birds lover, I have notice that Sungei Buloh has more birds than Chek Jawa.
I spent about 3 hours on the island. The trip was economical, great to burn off the cholestrol and a way to be back to nature again.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Singapore Press Holdings
Bought some SPH shares at S$3.30. Dividend payout at this price is more than 8%. Continue to be vested.
DBS share is less than S$10 today. Singtel is coming to be $2. Frenzy and panic selling rules. Herd action in full strength. Warren Buffet is buying.
Sing Food remains unaffected by market buoyancy.
US Presidential election in 11 days. Counting down for a change.
DBS share is less than S$10 today. Singtel is coming to be $2. Frenzy and panic selling rules. Herd action in full strength. Warren Buffet is buying.
Sing Food remains unaffected by market buoyancy.
US Presidential election in 11 days. Counting down for a change.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Lehman Brothers
"He is as much a thief as a pickpocket walking the streets of New York."
Ms Rita Cross describing Mr Richard S Fuld Jr, Ex Chief Executive of bankrupt Lehman Brothers. (online comment published in The New York Times on 16 Oct 08)
Ms Rita Cross describing Mr Richard S Fuld Jr, Ex Chief Executive of bankrupt Lehman Brothers. (online comment published in The New York Times on 16 Oct 08)
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Change of Decision
On 25 March 2003 when Singapore was affected by SARS (Severe Accute Respiratory Syndrome), the then Minister of Manpower/Education Dr Ng Eng Hen said that Ministry of Heath has advised Ministry of Education against the closing of schools in Singapore during the SARS outbreak. It was publicaly announced. This can be verified: http://misas.nhb.gov.sg/avs/public/internetSearch/catalogueForm.jsp?command=loadUpdate&id=2003000603&total=817&searchType=1&startIndex=200¤tPageNo=21&startPageNo=21&startNoBatch=200&count=10&source=MediaCorp%20Radio
On 26 March 2003, a joint statement release by Ministry of Education and Ministry of Heath said both ministries have decided to close all schools from 27 March 2003 to 6 Apr 2003. This can be verified: http://www.moe.gov.sg/media/press/2003/pr20030326.htm
On 15 October 2008, during the financial crisis, Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam said that Singapore's central bank does not need to follow other Asian Central banks in providing guarantees for deposits. This can be verified : http://938live.sg/portal/site/938Live/menuitem.43735da1634c4377d21b2910618000a0/?vgnextoid=476e1e8957ffc110VgnVCM1000001f0aa8c0RCRD&vgnextchannel=18d2638896593110VgnVCM100000e101000aRCRD&mcParam=18d2638896593110VgnVCM100000e101000aRCRD
On 16 October 2008, Monetary Authority of Singapore issued a press release that The Singapore Government has decided to guarantee all Singapore Dollar and foreign currency deposits of individual and non-bank customers in banks, finance companies and merchant banks licensed by the MAS. This can be verified: http://www.mas.gov.sg/news_room/press_releases/2008/MOF_and_MAS_Joint_Press_Statement.html
On 26 March 2003, a joint statement release by Ministry of Education and Ministry of Heath said both ministries have decided to close all schools from 27 March 2003 to 6 Apr 2003. This can be verified: http://www.moe.gov.sg/media/press/2003/pr20030326.htm
On 15 October 2008, during the financial crisis, Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam said that Singapore's central bank does not need to follow other Asian Central banks in providing guarantees for deposits. This can be verified : http://938live.sg/portal/site/938Live/menuitem.43735da1634c4377d21b2910618000a0/?vgnextoid=476e1e8957ffc110VgnVCM1000001f0aa8c0RCRD&vgnextchannel=18d2638896593110VgnVCM100000e101000aRCRD&mcParam=18d2638896593110VgnVCM100000e101000aRCRD
On 16 October 2008, Monetary Authority of Singapore issued a press release that The Singapore Government has decided to guarantee all Singapore Dollar and foreign currency deposits of individual and non-bank customers in banks, finance companies and merchant banks licensed by the MAS. This can be verified: http://www.mas.gov.sg/news_room/press_releases/2008/MOF_and_MAS_Joint_Press_Statement.html
Minibonds/Notes
Without Prejudice
Recently there was much talk about minibonds/notes. In Hong Kong and Singapore, many people have been told that their "investment" into minibond/notes could be totally wiped out and many of these "investors" were old folks with their life saving poured into minibonds/notes.
Banks said that they are absolved from all responsibility because of contractual protection. Banks has long forgotten the meaning of business and social ethics. Business ethics was common among past businessman where it is not ethical to simply collect the monies from customers and deliver a faulty product. It is like in constructing a building, an architect or engineer must design and ensure that a building has primary safety features that would ensure that the occupier is safe. Anyone who spotted a worker carrying out a hazardous activity which could endanger his life would have a moral obligation to tell him that it is unsafe. That moral obligation goes beyond the contractual terms and conditions. By taking the life saving of a retiree and rob him of his/her years if not decades of hard work is simply unethical and not morally justify.
Risk is always proportional to reward. The higher the risk the higer reward. The reward from minibonds is a return of approx 5%. To say that the total investment can be wiped out is not proportional to the reward/return.
For minibonds/notes where Lehman Bros is a reference entity, only 1 reference entity has failed. It should not mean that the whole value of minibonds/notes would be worthless. According to the brochure, the market value of debt obligations of that reference entity will only be lowered than their face amount. It should not affect the rest of the reference entities values.
For minibonds/notes where Lehman Bros is not a reference entity. Then no credit event has occured and the "investor" should be paid the coupon at the end of each quarter and upon maturity will be paid the principal invested. Certainly, there is a breach of contractual obligations if this is not fulfilled.
The banks while acting as distributors must pursuit the matter on behalf of the "investors". Afterall, they are financially stronger and well equiped legally to handle the situations. Leaving the old folks to fend for themselves is non ethical and morally incorrect.
Recently there was much talk about minibonds/notes. In Hong Kong and Singapore, many people have been told that their "investment" into minibond/notes could be totally wiped out and many of these "investors" were old folks with their life saving poured into minibonds/notes.
Banks said that they are absolved from all responsibility because of contractual protection. Banks has long forgotten the meaning of business and social ethics. Business ethics was common among past businessman where it is not ethical to simply collect the monies from customers and deliver a faulty product. It is like in constructing a building, an architect or engineer must design and ensure that a building has primary safety features that would ensure that the occupier is safe. Anyone who spotted a worker carrying out a hazardous activity which could endanger his life would have a moral obligation to tell him that it is unsafe. That moral obligation goes beyond the contractual terms and conditions. By taking the life saving of a retiree and rob him of his/her years if not decades of hard work is simply unethical and not morally justify.
Risk is always proportional to reward. The higher the risk the higer reward. The reward from minibonds is a return of approx 5%. To say that the total investment can be wiped out is not proportional to the reward/return.
For minibonds/notes where Lehman Bros is a reference entity, only 1 reference entity has failed. It should not mean that the whole value of minibonds/notes would be worthless. According to the brochure, the market value of debt obligations of that reference entity will only be lowered than their face amount. It should not affect the rest of the reference entities values.
For minibonds/notes where Lehman Bros is not a reference entity. Then no credit event has occured and the "investor" should be paid the coupon at the end of each quarter and upon maturity will be paid the principal invested. Certainly, there is a breach of contractual obligations if this is not fulfilled.
The banks while acting as distributors must pursuit the matter on behalf of the "investors". Afterall, they are financially stronger and well equiped legally to handle the situations. Leaving the old folks to fend for themselves is non ethical and morally incorrect.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Bukit Timah Hill
I went to climb up Bukit Timah Hill on Saturday 11 Oct 08. It was quite crowded even though it was before 8:00am. When I was a teenager, I used to climb this hill quite often with the School. I could recall that back then, the summit view was further and could see the reservoir. Now, it was blocked by trees and vegetation. The hill could be climbed in less than 30 mins without resting (route 1). The inital 100m was steep (more than 60 degree inclination). The summit was 163.8m above sea level.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Canon 70 - 200mm Assessment
I tried to snap photographs of butterfly on Sunday (5 Oct) with the newly bought Canon 70 - 200mm. My assessments are:-(i) Due to the long zoom, tripod is essential. Without tripod, at 200mm, there will be hand vibration causing poor image. The bare minimum is a monopod.
(ii) The lens produces vibrant colours.
(iii) While trying to focus on small insect against the background of other objects (eg flowers, leaf), I have observed that the lens tries to achieve alternate focus. I have set the camera to a single point centre focus and it helps but not totally eliminating the problem. This is nothing to do with the quality of the lens, but more due to the environment where there is requirement to snap small insects in motion.
(iv) Bokeh at f4L is good.
(v) Monopod will take away substantially the weight of the lens + camera. It is more mobile as compared to a tripod.
(vi) The only fault I can find is that that the lens has a minimum focusing distance of 1.2m which is too far away from the subject for a large enlargement. Many times, I am not able to achieve the 1.2m distance. The solution may be to purchase a Raynox DCR 250 macro lens as an attachement to the 70 -200mm.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
DOW & Economy
DOW Jones dropped below 10,000. People are in fear. Fear creates panic and investors are selling at price below the true value of the company and its equity.
From economics perspective, this sounds right. A correction after more than 3 years of growth. Oil price is coming down to a realistic level. Inflationary pressure is reduced. While it may never be at US$20/barrel, it will be good if price can be around US$50/barrel. This will be beneficial to companies that depend on oil and when cost is influenced by oil price, eg transport companies. The US dollar is appreciating because FED is maintaining a higher interest rate to keep US$ within the country to fight off credit squeeze. But this may hurt US economy by reducing its competitiveness.
The prices of Singapore equities are still high relative to the trough, eg Singtel equity used to be S$2, C&C used to be less than S$10, DBS used to be under S$10. There will be room for more decrease.
The equity market will usually have a time gain of more than 6 months with respect to the actual health of the economy. While the property market will have time lag of more than 6 months. Property prices have yet to fall to a reasonable level. It will when unemployment starts to kick in.
Caveat Emptor
From economics perspective, this sounds right. A correction after more than 3 years of growth. Oil price is coming down to a realistic level. Inflationary pressure is reduced. While it may never be at US$20/barrel, it will be good if price can be around US$50/barrel. This will be beneficial to companies that depend on oil and when cost is influenced by oil price, eg transport companies. The US dollar is appreciating because FED is maintaining a higher interest rate to keep US$ within the country to fight off credit squeeze. But this may hurt US economy by reducing its competitiveness.
The prices of Singapore equities are still high relative to the trough, eg Singtel equity used to be S$2, C&C used to be less than S$10, DBS used to be under S$10. There will be room for more decrease.
The equity market will usually have a time gain of more than 6 months with respect to the actual health of the economy. While the property market will have time lag of more than 6 months. Property prices have yet to fall to a reasonable level. It will when unemployment starts to kick in.
Caveat Emptor
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Canon EF 70 - 200mm f4 L USM
I bought this lens today. Reason for purchase:-
(i) Sigma lens DL 70 - 300 mm is not compatible with EOS 450D.
(ii) I need a lens with 70 - 200 mm to telezoom on subject.
(iii) f4 with no Image Stabiliser is the best lens that meet my budget.
The cost is S$998 plus S$28 worth of hoya uv filter (67mm). While lighter than 70 - 200mm f2.8L, it is still heavy and requires a steady hand when zoom to 200mm. Poor image will appear when the light is not sufficient bright and the speed of aperture is slow. My estimate is, with handheld, the minimum aperture speed is 1/20 while focusing on a still object.
The IS version costs S$600 more and is not really value for money. Hence, I have to carry a monopod/tripod when using this lens at maximum zoom. The photo shows the Canon 70 - 200mm f4L against Sigma 70 - 300mm DL.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Church
The Church (Church of Risen Christ) I was baptised and confirmed, where I attended Cathecism when I was a little boy. As a secondary school boy, I have read the testament according to St Luke and sat examination on it.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Favourite Food
Cantonese Dim Sum - Siew Mai / Chee Cheong Fun / Har Gow / Porridge with century egg 皮蛋瘦肉粥 ... Yummy
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