Goldman Sachs

2 years ago, on 8 December 2016, I wrote on the Blog that I sold away my Goldman Sachs at a price of US$234.50 and made a good profit.

On 20 Dec 18, the Dow Jones had dropped to a level of 22,859 from its peak of 26,959. A drop of 15% from its peak. A piece of Goldman Sachs is now priced at slightly more than US$168, compared to US$275, more than US$100 off this peak. I bought some of the equity back.

Is there down side risk? Yes, certainly there is with this current bear market. This is expected due to investor irrationalism. Is there up side gain? Yes, in the long term. The PE ratio currently is just 12.29.

Warren Buffett owns this equity. It has made him many good profits. It has made me some good profit. Happy Investing!

Tokyo Yamanote Line

Yamanote Line in 1963 - Screen capture from YouTube Michael Rogge film

Yamanote Line in 2018 with familiar lime green colour

Back in 1993, when I first visited Japan. Hotel Metropolitan, in Ikebukuro was where I had stayed and the Yamanote Line was the first train line I had taken. Japan was the first country I had travelled located at more than 5 hours in flight from my home. It had opened my eyes to the world beyond South East Asia. It had bullet train, Sony electronics, Matsushita electronics, Hitachi, Toyota cars, Honda cars etc. An economic power house. In 1993, Japan was at the start of recession. It had enjoyed economic growth since WW2 and lasted till early 1990s. Since then Japan inflation is close to zero. Back in 1993, a meal could be bought for 1000 yen or less. In 2018, 25 years later, a meal could still be bought for less than 1000 yen. (eg Ramen).

Back to Yamanote, the line was first opened back in 1885. It was unique in that it circled the major Tokyo metropolitan cities with line distance of 34.5km (21 mile). Ikebukuro is one of the city. Back in 1993, the Yamanote was a green line with the train highlighted in lime green. I remembered taking the first ride from Ikebukuro to Ueno Station. Till this date, the Yamanote is still a green line. Somehow, in 2018, I did not find the Yamanote line to be so crowded. On the other hand, I found that Chuo Line was much more crowded during peak hour and physically it was packed till the door.

The other difference is that now, the announcement in train station could include Japanese, English and Chinese. Back in 1993, it was first only the first and second language. A change in economic circumstances.

Nonetheless, it was really memorable to seat on Yamanote line and also equally memorable was the sound of the periodic train track vibration which was so unique of Japan.

Tokyo Asakusa

The photos above were unedited other than adding copyright note. They were taken in the evening in Asakusa where there were fewer people and a cooler weather. As I did not bring along my travelling bag, the photos were taken with my iPhone 7.  I was pretty impressed with the camera of iPhone. Just look at how brilliant the red colour of the shrine was and how sharp the photos were. Beautiful! While there were many negative comments comparing iPhone and other Android phones in technical specifications, to me it is the output that matters. Despite a simple single lens camera, it was able to produce result comparable, if not better, than my Sony APS-C (A6000) camera even at dim night conditions. The price of iPhone is of course a premium over Android phones, but the overall user satisfaction is still guaranteed with a iPhone. That is after more than 2 years owning the iPhone 7.

I have been to Asakusa many years ago, but this is the first time I have been there at night with not so many people and the weather was cooling. The experience was magnificent.

Tokyo Food

Ramen and in this case Ichiran Ramen. Famous among foreigners. There was a queue formed to pay for the food. Overall it is tasty without sensing MSG. It should be made by boiling pigs bone for a long period of time. Thick broth makes a rick taste. At 870 Yen, it is reasonably priced considering other Ramen outlets. Was told that Ichiran originates from Kyushu region of Japan. This is the most value for money against its quality for the food I had.

Okonomiyaki - Japanese Pizza. The one on the left has flour and bacon, while the one on the right has noodle and flour. Tasty due to okonomiyaki sauce. It is highly recommended. The set cost about 1850 Yen for 2 persons including drinks. The restaurant at UDX Akihabara allows patrons to self cook or the chef will cook for you. It tastes real good.

Beef tongue croquette. When I walked into this restaurant, I thought it was a beef restaurant without knowing that they sell only beef tongue. I have the impression that it was beef croquette, probably due to my poor understanding of the language. Nonetheless I tried it. This was not the first time I ate beef tongue though. Its more of psychological than the taste and texture. It was quite expensive at about 1600 Yen.

Tempura soba. The soba is ok but there were only 2 pieces of prawn and one small green chilli. Priced at 1470 Yen, it seems expensive. But this is a famous shop in Asakusa. Quality wise the prawns are fresh and sweet.

Pufferfish - Also known "fugu". I had this in soup and fried format. Japanese delicacies. Poisonous if not prepared properly. Certain part of the fish is lethal and originates from its ovaries and liver. It must be prepared by a certified chef to remove the poison. Taste like ordinary fish and has many bones. Expensive at 10,000 yen for 2 persons. Would I try again? Probably not, considering the risk and price.

Unagi rice. The grilled eel is very expensive in Japan given the strong demand in Asia market. Many eels are originated from China or Taiwan. I paid 3700 Yen for this. Taste wise, I have tasted better one. This one has too many fine bones which disturbed the enjoyment. The meat is ok but the sauce could be better. There are cheaper ones around Tokyo.

Sake - Taste good and reasonably priced. This one costs about 250 Yen. Slight sweetness makes the sake easy to drink. Available in convenient stall.

Tokyo - Nikon Museum

Nikon FM2 first version

Camera Prototype

Camera Prototype

The information explains the 2 photographs above.

Nikon Museum located at Shinagawa is a must visit place if you love photography. It gives a history of all the SLR and other important cameras that the firm had manufactured from the beginning of 20th century. Nikon is indeed a great manufacturer of camera. Nothing can beat looking at these beautifully crafted cameras.

Having owned Nikon FM2 SLR camera, it is fantastic to see the camera being displayed as part of the many cameras on its historical shelf. The challenge I faced nowadays is weight, the camera body and lens weigh considerably when sufficient weather protection is included especially for high ends camera. The weight makes it difficult to carry for tour. Hence, nowadays, my default camera is the Sony A6000 which is light weight and easy to carry.

Nonetheless, do enjoy the beautiful cameras from the museum. The museum can be reached via Shinagawa station east exit and walking overhead connection (they called it skyway connection) from the station to Tower C of Intercity Tower. It is free-of-charge entry. Explanation is written in English and Japanese.

When I was visiting Asakusa, I saw a senior lady with a SLR film camera. While I didn't see the brand of the camera, it was really a great sight.

Nikon FM2 1984

The Nikon FM2 is shown in the museum. Notice that in the 1980s, the standard lens is a 50mm. It is beautiful and even more beautiful when it is held in hand. For my camera, I have a 28mm f1:2.8 as the standard lens. The body has a "Made in Japan" engraved below. Link to my blog for FM2 is shown below:-

https://e21s.blogspot.com/2014/06/nikon-fm2-n.html

Tokyo ~ 20th to 25th October 2018

Akihabara Tokyo

This is my forth time I visited Tokyo. The first was in 1993, 2nd in 1995 and 3rd in 1997. A whopping time gap of 21 years since my last visit. Japan has always been a country which I liked. Its people are fantastic, plenty of shopping malls with great quality stuffs, good transport system that makes travel easy and delicious quality food.  What reminds me of my visit in the last century was the sound of Japan train and sound of ambulance siren. These things do not changed.

When I visited Tokyo in 1993, the first train line which I took was Yamanote Line (山手线). This train circled inner Tokyo and goes to many important cities. I am happy that I was able to take this train again. The green colour on this train body is so distinct and familiar. In the 21st Century, the complex train schedule can all be planned by smart phone and google.

I visited Seiko Museum, Nikon Museum, National Museum of Nature and Science, National Museum of Western Art, Tokyo Tower and Toyota Mega Web. The National Museum of Western Art was not a planned visit in my itinerary but there is currently a exhibition on Rubens Art pieces, which attracted me.

End October is autumn in Tokyo and it is considered perfect weather for visit. I loved the temperature of 15 to 20 degree Celsius. The chance of typhoon is low during this period.

I stayed in Asakusabashi 浅草桥 which is a station east of Akihabara. Great location to stay if the intent is to go shopping in Akihabara. This area has lesser crowd than other popular cities in Tokyo. It has direct train service from Haneda Airport which is good plus point.

Quote of the Month

VW Beetle in Deutsches Museum

".... This thing is 52 years old and it still works great. And with that rear engine transmission design and it still handles really well for a car that is 52 years old. They are still fun to drive. So now you know, a Volkswagen made in ****** stuff. When men were men and cars were made of metal."

Scotty Kilmer describing his 1967 Volkswagen Squareback and comparing it to modern Volkswagen cars. (Sep 2018)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vDqyn-qmwM

My Thoughts on Malaysia GE14

It is indeed a shocking win by Parkatan Harapan in Malaysia Election on 9 May 2018. It is a significant historical event for Malaysia and may affect politics in Singapore.  This is similar to the US election 2016 where the media and political expert failed miserably in predicting the outcome of who will be the winner. This is due to flaw survey methodology and inability to predict human behavior prior to the actual election. There are signs though.

The DAP (Democratic Action Party) is finally able to govern together with other political parties forming the Parkatan Harapan. Historically, the DAP was formed by members of PAP and the principle of meritocracy, equality and fairness should prevail, although the deeply rooted corruption may be entrenched and would take immense political will to change. Look at China.  Parti Keadilan Rakyat is however famous for its 'reformasi' (reform) slogan.

I hope Malaysia will not be another Singapore. It will loose its character if it focuses on economical excellence.

Of course Tun Mahathir is not a simple person, historically. From Anwar imprisonment, his handling of Asian financial crisis, pulling the plug on CLOB, attitude towards Singapore etc. A leopard can't change its spots.

Recent days have seen the Finance Minister Mr Lim announcing that Malaysia is in debt by 1 Trillion Ringgit. That is not a small sum. It is a 1 with 12 zeros behind. He knows that he should avoid printing money as a means of solving the debt issue. Fortunately, Malaysia is blessed with oil and palm resources. He should consider attracting investor to invest in Malaysia, something which Mr Lim is familiar from managing Penang.

Every means of attracting foreign monies should be considered. Malaysia neighbor is Singapore. Singaporean are known to spend their economic wealth across the causeway. The present government should seriously consider means of increasing such inflow of a strong currency. Every dollar spent has its multiplying effect. Policy change may include making it easier at the custom for Singaporeans to clear immigration. Reduction in tax on entry. Allowing Singaporeans VISA entry to Malaysia to be extended to say 3 months, especially for retirees. Facilitating purchase of property and vehicle. Improving security for foreigners. Protecting foreigner interest (removing the fear from the hard hand solution implemented during Asian financial crisis). Over long term, such expenditure in Malaysia would create employment. A win-win situation.

Singapore and Malaysia was once a single country.

Quote of the Month

"But it is not tougher to succeed now than it was 20 or 30 or 50 years ago. The America that you see 20 or 30 years from now is going to be far more prosperous and talent will always be rewarded. Hardwork will be rewarded. We will have a wonderful future."

Warren Buffett on good habits and start saving early,

Interview with Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief, Andy Serwer

 

"In other words, for every dollar you could have made in American business, you'd have less than a penny of gain by buying into a store of value which people tell you to run to every time you get scared by the headlines."

 



Warren Buffet at 2018 Berkshire Hathaway 2018 Annual Meeting
He shared that US$10,000 invested in S&P Index Fund in 1942 would be worth US$51 Million in 2018. The same US$10,000 invested in Gold would approximately US$400,000 in 2018.

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)

The Dow Jones dropped below 24000 (intra-day) on 3 May 18. I have been waiting for this level for a few weeks while trying to settle my trading account issue at Charles Schwab.

With the issue settled, I bought some VOO which is a ETF reflecting S&P performance at a unit price of US$240.09. This purchase follows Mr Warren Buffett advice on S&P and my personal experience with Vanguard mutual funds (VBINX). Unfortunately, as a foreigner, Vanguard or the FED has prevented me to purchase mutual funds outside of US. Previously I could purchase mutual funds. I have purchased VBINX more than 10 years ago (in 2007) even before the financial crisis in 2008/2009. The dividend from VBINX was reinvested throughout the years and this mutual fund has been one of the best performed fund over a long period of time. Back in 2007, the Dow Jones was just 13500.

With this in mind, I bought VOO with the intention to hold it for long term, as what Mr Buffett has advised, with dividends reinvested.

The other thing that surprised me was the commission that Charles Schwab earns is just US$4.95. Back in 2007, it was US$14.95. Competition has eroded trading firms commission. Of course, there could even be cheaper commission rate, but I am happy with the support service that Charles Schwab customer service provides.

VOO has an expense ratio of just 0.04%, one of the lowest in its category. This is fantastic for long term investor. The ETF has another advantage in that its price moves with the market and unlike mutual fund where the index is given only at the end of the trading day.

Warren Buffett on S&P 500 Index

"The S&P 500 index is the one that I used and the bet I have made for 10 years. It is the one I told the trustee for my wife to put 90% of the fund ...."

"You are buying America."

"I bought my first stock when I was 11 years old. It was the first quarter of 1942. Shortly after Pearl Harbor. I spent a total of $114.75 with 3 shares ...... If I put that $114 into the S&P 500 at that time and reinvested the dividends, think of a figure to what it might be worth today? ......... The answer is about $400,000, ......., in one person's lifetime. And that is America..... It is the huge tailwind the American economy gives to any equity investors."

"America is a powerful economic machine."

"You don't want to buy to hold  for a year. You don't want to buy with the idea that you can sell it in 2 years or 3 years and necessary make money, you could lose money that way. But if you buy it for 10, 20, just keep buying the S&P 500 index and forget about all other nonsense that is being sold to you, .... "

"The S&P 500 companies have earned well over 10% on equities, often 15% annually, for years and years and years, they have done it with democratic administration, with republicans administration. Now you get that kind of money compounded at that kind of rate underlying your investments and you get a diversified group of that, you're going to do well."

                .... Warren Buffett interview with Andy Serwer - editor in chief, Yahoo Finance, Apr 2018

Rolex Submariner 16610 Movement

The Rolex Submariner 3135 movement. The heart of its accuracy.

I have sent the watch for servicing today after owning it for more than 7 years. This is a pre-owned watch. Service is done at K2 Watch. The owner of K2 Watch has done servicing to my Rolex 6694 back in 2010. He has checked that my Submariner is authentic. The price of this watch has risen throughout the period of ownership. I serviced it with no intent to sell it but to continue to keep this as a good working watch.

Quote of the Month

 

"I regard the brain as a computer which will stop working when its component fails. There is no heaven or afterlife for broken down computers; that is a fairy story for people afraid of the dark."

 

Stephen Hawking, 1942 - 2018

Author of A Brief History of Time, which I read in the late 1980s

Yamaha A-S501 and Monitor Audio Bronze 2

Yamaha A-S501 Amplifier Rear

I finally bought my amplifier and speakers. Initially I had ordered a Denon PMA-510AE for the price of S$511 but the shop had no stock at hand and was only able to deliver 2 months later. So I cancelled the order. The Denon amplifier has a 50W per channel power rating and I wanted to find out if quality could last long. I knew electronics product like amplifier would probably not last long.

Ultimately, I purchased the Yamaha A-S501 amplifier for several reasons (1) power rating of 85W per channel, (2) the availability of bass and treble control which I like (3) reasonable price at S$610 for 85W of power (4) loudness control which reminded me of my old Pioneer amplifier (5) the ability to connect a subwoofer to the amplifier. It has A and B speaker setting which means 2 pairs of speakers could be connected although this would reduce the power rating of the amplifier. Currently connected to the amplifier is my Philips CD/DVD player bought more than 15 years ago and still working. My only worry on the Yamaha amplifier is how long it would last. I had a Yamaha DSP(Digital Sound Processor) purchased at a relative high price in the early 90s. It did not last very long, Less than a decade and the Yamaha DSP was not working.

I had tested the Onkyo 9010 amplifier which was given a 5 stars rating by What Hifi magazine. The price of S$475 was attractive. The only problem was that it didn't sound as good as the Yamaha amplifier even though What Hifi had rated the A-S501 as 4 stars. The bass and treble controls were not responsive. It just doesn't sound as good.

I love bass and treble control as they allow me to slightly change the music to my likings. I told the salesman of my pair speaker that I love bass. Even in my car which I had said was one of the best listening environment, has its base adjusted higher. Of course audiophile would consider altering the original intent of musician as not advisable. If music equipment manufacturer would produce sound equalizer nowadays, I would definitely consider purchasing it. The focus now is theatrical sound and sound processor for consumer grade music/movie entertainment system.

I am still trying to run-in the Monitor Audio Bronze 2 speaker. Current assessment is that the pair of speaker is clear in its mid to high frequency sound production. The bass is not as strong as Dynaudio Emit M20 speaker. But Bronze 2 has the advantage of clarity and a lower price than the Dynaudio. The Bronze 2 is made in China which could explain the price difference. The bass can be enhanced via my amplifier.

I have a very antique pair of speaker from the 80s, the American Acoustics D5550E which I have earlier discussed in my blog. Comparing the American Acoustics and Bronze 2, I would say that the former has a smooth and simple sound which a listener could listen for a long period of time with little ear fatigue. This is after all a pair of more than 25 years old speaker. The Bronze 2 has a impactful sound which is well driven by the amplifier. But the focus on mid to high frequency may lead to fatique after long hours of listening. In the meantime, I am enjoying this amplifier and speakers.

I have tried the SVS SB2000 subwoofer which was paired with a SVS SB1000 in the sales office. With the paired speakers, the sound was balanced and good. But the price of the pair was more than S$2000. This pair is played in a calibrated acoustic controlled room which makes the sound fantastic. But this may not be so in a non-acoustic treated room. When the SVS SB1000 was played in a single unit, the balance was diminished and it didn't sound as good. This makes me reluctant to purchase the subwoofer. I may reconsider it again. A well balanced subwoofer creates a sound environment in which the presence of the subwoofer would not be detected.

Quote of the Month

Lily : "How much does this thing(Star Trek Enterprise) costs?"

Capt Picard: " The economics of the future is somewhat different. You see, money doesn't exist in the 24th century."

Lily : "No money? You mean you don't get paid?"

Capt Picard: "The acquisition of wealth is no longer the driving force in our lives. We work to better ourselves and the rest of humanities...."

..... Star Trek First Contact, 1996, conversation between Captain Picard and Lily

 

Sounds like communism

Speakers Test

I have the opportunity to test listen a few brands of speakers today with the intention of purchase speakers in the near future. Tested the Monitor Audio Bronze 2 which has won a What Hifi? magazine award in 2017, Bowers & Wilkins 685 S2 and Deli Zensor 3.

I found that the Monitor Audio Bronze is the best and the most price competitive for bookshelves class speakers. It is clear and the bass is well balanced, without subwoofers. Bowers & Wilkins is strong in its mid-range and clarity in the mid-range.

Interestingly, back in 1988 when I tested speakers before purchasing my American Acoustics speaker, the salesman was using Dire Straits songs. Fast forwarding 30 years to 2018, the salesman for Monitor Audio was also using Dire Straits songs. It appears that Straits songs are highly sought after as audio speakers testing.

I also tested listening the Bowers & Wilkins 683 S2 speakers. They were much better than 685 S2 speakers. However the price for 683 S2 is much higher.

My experience after all these years are that speakers are the most lasting equipment for a audio / hifi setup. They are still working after 30 years while the rest of the electronic equipment were replaced.

Yan Ji Seafood Soup



Jan Ji Seafood Soup and Rice

 

The famous Yan Ji ( 炎记  )Seafood Soup and Rice in Marsiling Mall at Woodlands Street 12.

The seafood soup costs me $8.50 and $0.50 for the white rice.

The soup is thick and tasty but quantity is limited (see photo). I believe it has anchovies(ikan bilis) as soup base.  Meatballs are big and very well cooked.  Fish is fresh and taste good.

Quality is in the soup and its ingredients.  The only issue is whether it is worth $9. I think it is a little expensive but do not mind having it once in a while.