Cameron Highland Impression

 

1) Love the cooler weather up on the hills. I think it is about 1300 to 1500 metres in height. Temperature is about 20 to 22 degree.

2) Single carriageway winding roads. One up and one down. There are a few sections that have wider dual carriageways. It is more challenging than Genting due to the single lane road especially when there is heavy vehicle in front, making overtaking difficult if not dangerous. During my return journey, there was rain causing the road to be slippery. I saw a small hatchback that spined 180 degree on the road, hitting the guard rail. Fortunately, it didn't go down the hill. Really have to focus on driving the winding road and get a car with good handling characteristics. Please ensure that there is plenty of rest in between the destination.

3)  There was a motorcyclist who probably knew the road well enough to guide motorists as he was in front of a heavy vehicle. He signaled to us that it was alright to overtake the heavy vehicle. In essence, he looked out for incoming traffic from the other direction. Due to the winding road, there are plenty of blind spots to be careful. 

4) Roadworks blocking in any direction will mean that there will be traffic marshaller and the traffic will be halted for a period of time. Be ready stop and keep a safe distance with the car in front of you.

5) Love the strawberry ice cream that was made from the strawberry grown on the highland.

6) Love the peppermint leaves grown in various gardens. Very refreshing.

7) Scenery is amazing and that cannot be seen in a city. 

8) We used Waze for directional guidance. There are signages along the way to guide driver.

Drive safe and enjoy the journey.

Proton Saga 2019

 

I rented a Proton Saga for 2.5 days and drove the car from Ipoh to Cameron Highland and to Taiping. It was a 1.3 litre standard version (no frills). The price of rental is about RM138 per day, excluding petrol but including insurance.

Back in the 90s, I had sat on a Proton Saga 1st Generation. It was a boxy looking car and appeared to be bigger than the 2019 version. Of course, the first generation car used the Mitsubishi engine block, while the 2019 car used the firm own engine.

Recently, I have the opportunity to drive the car to hilly and winding roads as well as the North-South highway between Ipoh and Taiping. 

Some good comments about the car:-

1) Good handing - Especially when facing winding roads in a rainy day.  It was able to grip the road well. 

2) Good automatic gear response - Able to downshift appropriately especially when going downhill.

3) Easy to drive - Compact and easily maneuverable. The car even has parking sensor (front and back) which I found it useful.

Some negative comments about the car:-

1) Not as smooth and refined as compared to my Honda Civic 10th Gen (2019 year of manufacturing).

2) Engine required revving and heavy foot especially when travelling at the highway. Could be a sign that 1.3 litre block is under-powered.

3) At speed of 120km/hr and above, the steering wheel was vibrating. This does not give confidence to the driver.

It is a good car if the driver does mostly city driving and occasionally drive in highway. At a price of less than RM40000 (USD8900), for the basic auto-transmission, it is a value for money option.

Penang 2022

 

Its been more than 10 years since my last visit to Penang Island. I visited the island from 28 Nov to 2 Dec 22, my fourth visit in my entire life so far.

Things are getting expensive, especially food. Partly due to global inflation and partly due to poorly managed economy leading to shortages of raw produce, from chicken to eggs. A typical McDonald meal can cost between RM 15 to RM20 per person, which is typically what Singapore McDonald charges. Simple Dim Sum breakfast in hawker centre costs between RM25 to RM30 for 2 persons. I recalled that some years ago, a bowl of noodle can be as little as RM3.50 to RM4. The current high food price will mean that only wealthy Malaysian can enjoy food from restaurants. I had an opportunity to speak to a local Grab driver and received feedback that residents who can't afford will have to depend on home cooked food to reduce their cost of living. What remains reasonably price is their daily groceries bought from local supermarket. Eg a simple no frills T-shirt can be RM15 at local Lotus Supermarket.

Hopefully, with the change in government in the recent general election, there will be better economic conditions for local residents.

Tried the Mao Shan Wang(MSW) Durian in Penang, it was fresh and tasty. The best food I had for the whole trip. It was expensive at RM68/kg but it was worth it due to its superior quality. I think in Singapore, the MSW durian will likely be cheaper. 

There are still new buildings being erected around the island, showing that investments are still flowing into the island.

Virus of the Century - Covid

 

I am tested positive of Covid Omicron virus. 2.5 years after Covid virus was first detected in Wuhan.

The details of my infection are as follow:-

Day 0 - ART negative.

Day 1 - Rashes started to appear on my right and left arm

Day 2 - Sneezing, soar throat, slight fever (37 to 38 degree Celsius), headache, runny nose. All are rather mild symptoms, which are consistent with Omicron variant. My 2nd dose of Pfizer vaccine was injected in Nov 2021. Some 7 months later, I have the real virus infection.

Day 3 - ART positive. Went to see a doctor and was prescribed with a few medicine to treat the symptoms.

Understand that sneezing is unique only to those who had taken the vaccine. Strangely, I have no lost of taste and smell. Food continues to taste good.

The question is whether a booster is required after natural infection. My view is probably yes, but to be taken at least 5 to 6 months later after the last day of ART positive. 

I am 99% certainty that the virus came from a family member who was also infected. In a home setting, the removal of mask poses a higher risk.

Under current protocol, I am required to isolate myself for 3 days and do a ART again. If negative, I am able to resume my normal activity. If positive, continue with isolation.

What I am worry now is the prevalence of Long Covid among infected patient.

Quote of the Month

" If you're active, although you may be a little bit sick, but you're active you're up and about reading, writing, debating, making speeches and all that, all this time you use your brain. The brain remains active, like the muscles."

                                                                                                   ............. Dr Mahathir Mohamad

28 Years of Work

 

28 years ago, just fresh from University, I began my working journey. 

After 5 companies  later, I am finally hanging my working shoe.

The shortest I had been with a company was about 3 years and the longest, close to 10 years.

The 28 years duration was a long journey, accompanied with guidance from 贵人 (well knowledge person) and challenges from difficult person(s). The journey has one regret, the lost of 1 life, arising from a safety accident. 

I am looking forward to the next stage of life.

1 Apr 2022 - Causeway Reopens to Private Cars/Motorcycles

 

   1 Apr 2022 Causeway

On 18 Mar 2020, I wrote that it was a historical moment that the Causeway between Singapore and Malaysia was closed due to Covid pandemic. E21S: Historical Moments - Coronavirus COVID 19

On 1 Apr 2022, after more than 2 years of pandemic, the Causeway between Singapore and Malaysia is finally open to land transport (involving private cars and motorcycles). Another historical moments to remember. Possibly once in a lifetime event. The connection allows families to reunite and tourist travel to take place with ease.

Long Live Singapore and Malaysia!

A Pleasant Surprise on an 'Investment'

 

Commodities (including Coffee) on display in Museum of American Finance in NYC

In 1989, when I was a young man serving National Service, I made an investment in commodity trading, via a fellow serviceman. It amounted to SGD$6000.

I was making good progress in the 'investment' and it produced positive profit for a few months. The 'investment' was through high leverage on purchase of coffee commodity mainly. Then out of a sudden, I was informed that the boss of the trading firm ran away and it became clear that the firm and 'investment ' were scam. A report was made with Commercial Affairs Department of SPF. There was no update nor closure from SPF. The episode taught me to be extremely careful with investment. In fact, up till this day, majority of my asset is in cash, which is a low return low risk asset.  I had learnt that preserving the value of an asset is important through avoiding all risky 'investment'. I had totally written off the SGD$6000.

On 14 Mar 2022, some 33 years later, out of the blue, the fellow servicemen came knocking on my door, after loosing contact for a third of a century. It turned out that he had hunted me down since 2006 when he made resolution to repay, out of his own pocket money, those who had trusted him and invested in him. 

It was a pleasant surprise. Looking for a person is not easy, not to mention the determination needed and the personal loss of the money returned.

I was given the sum of SGD$12000. I suppose for him it is a closure of an event that had happened when both of us were young. A proof that a good character goes a long way. 

Thank you!

AAPL - Apple Inc

 

iPhone XS manufacturer AAPL

I finally bought AAPL at US$170/share today. I have kept observing this stock for so many years. From before the stock split to US$140 -> US$150 -> US$160 -> US$170.

I had previously vouched not to purchase technology stock due to previous bad experience with Creative Technology stock.

Somehow, this stock trading at 30 times PE is just a galloping horse and the price keeps running up, while brick and mortar stocks are terrible performers.

Other reason I can think of:- Warren Buffet owns AAPL since 2016.

The amount I paid is the price of a iPhone 13 in Singapore. Hence it is not a big amount, but hopefully, this stock will beat inflation and the annual return from S&P 500 (10%). If it can achieve a rate of return of 20%, I would own another iPhone in 5 years time (price without inflation consideration).

Pfizer Vaccine

I had my first dose of Pfizer Vaccine in July 2021. The first dose has side effect. On the same night of the injection, there was chest pain. The chest pain was substantially felt for 3 days. After 3 days, the pain began to subside. But it didn't fully go away. In fact, after 3 months, I still feel slight discomfort.

Due to the chest pain, I was in Hospital for observation, had ECG done that showed my heart was pumping normally, as the fear then was whether myocarditis had set in. During my short stay in hospital, I noticed that there were other patients who had the same chest pain. The questions then wer why was this not massively publicized? And why it happened?

The first answer is probably due to the strategy to encourage a large population to be vaccinated. More publicity of negative side effects would lead to fear among people. As to why it happened, I read that mRNA vaccine creates antibodies as a immune response. As part of the properties of these antibodies, they would attack the virus if found. Concurrently, they would also attack healthy cells, thus causing inflammation. This would likely be the reason why chest pain was felt. 

Not everyone who had taken the vaccine have the same side effect as each body is differently built.

Due to the chest pain, I had to visit a cardiologist and had a Stress Test done on my heart. The Stress Test is to assess whether my hear is functioning properly by increasing the heart rate to 143 bpm. Fortunately, it is healthy. I was given my second dose of my Pfizer Vaccine in November, more than 3 months since the first dose. Other than a slight headache and tiredness on the following day post vaccination, there was no major chest pain. 

The endemic approach would mean that vaccination is a solution to reduce the risk of illness and death due to Covid 19. 

Rotring Rapidograph 0.35

Rotring Rapidograph

The Rotring Rapidograph 0.35 technical pen. I just brought this pen in Singapore, but the ink was all dried up. I have purchased the ink cartridge waiting for delivery. I am interested in this pen due to historical reason. Back in 1980s, probably around 1983, I was working in my Father's office, in Kallang Avenue Industrial Centre, when I noticed this strange pen. As a high school student, I was familiar with ball point pen, pencil and marker. But this pen had unique pen nib that was rigid and it was not a fountain pen. At that time, there was no ink in the cartridge and I had pretty bad impression of the pen performing the function of writing due to its rigid nib. The colour was red. 

Only much later that I realised that it was a Rotring pen, meant for technical drawings.

Fast forwarding 38 years, I managed to buy this Rotring pen. Strangely, it had a "W. Germany' engraved on its pen clip. As we know West Germany was unified with East Germany in 1990, hence, I suspect the pen is from 1980s era, which further reminisces my childhood. The cap requires turning in order to assess the pen nib. It is a fine pen. Loving it especially the deep maroon red.

General Anaesthesia

I went for a surgery yesterday under general anaesthesia(GA) to remove a lump on my body rear.

This was not my first GA surgery as I had a pneumothorax and wisdom tooth removal done under GA.

The standard practice under GA is still the same after all these years:- 1) intravenous injection 2) placing a mask over my nose/mouth and 3) inhaling the GA gas (which has a smell now) 4) knocking out in less than 10 seconds.

The unconscious state under GA has no feeling, no recollection, no dreams, no colours, no sense of time, no meaning, no attachments. Nothing. It just allows me to appreciate what death is about which has equivalent emptiness. Applies to pre-birth. 

Body and mind have no meaning. 

A stark reminder that while life matters, death doesn't. Death has no meaning.

Mars Perseverance Landing

Nasa Mars Lander Perseverance is landing in Mars today after flying for about 6.5 months in space. I wish Nasa all success in the landing mission. Also wish orbiter/lander of other countries that have sent their probe to Mars, China and UAE, a great success in their quest for scientific knowledge.

Looking forward for more photos of planet Mars.  It is significant step for mankind.

SGD $3 Million

 

Water and Wealth from Jewel Changi, Singapore

It is the first day of 2021. By default, the CPF Board (Singapore Retirement Scheme) will distribute its interest for the year 2020 on all accounts within an individual CPF.

After taking into account the CPF monies and all my assets, excluding property, I realise that I have about SGD 3 Million, which is equivalent to US$2.27 Million (base on 1 Jan 21 exchange rate). However, CPF monies are immobile and they are largely for the purpose of retirement.

A part of the wealth comes from US Equity and ETF investments which has recorded its highest level, even though Covid pandemic is spreading across the world. On the other hand, the Singapore Stock market is one of the poorest performer in the world for returns on investment, for year 2020. 

The downside of US Equity and ETF investments is that US dollar has been slipping in value against major currencies of the world, including SGD. (from 1.40 to the current 1.32)

Happy New Year to everyone!

Game & Watch - Nintendo

 

Game & Watch Super Mario Bros

When I was in Primary School (circa 1978 to 1980), the Game & Watch was a popular digital game. There were Octopus, Parachute, Helmet, Ball games. Subsequently, there was Donkey Kong. Friends had all these digital games as they were from relatively rich background. I did not own these but had the opportunity to borrow and play, thanks to them.

It was not until in December 2020 that I bought a Game & Watch from the USA. This digital game is to celebrate 35th anniversary of the Super Mario game. Other than 2 sets of Super Mario games, it has the game of Ball. It reminds me of my childhood and a time when there is no wifi and no internet. This machine does not connect to the Internet which I think is unique and relates to a time when there is no reliance on internet and no software virus. 👍

The game has a similar colour and feel of the original set (eg size). The screen is however coloured LCD. Battery is internal battery with a USB cable, instead of LR44. 

Loving this retro game!

Astrophysics / Blackholes / Light - Gravity Hypothesis

Recently due to the pandemic, I was watching Youtube videos on Astrophysics.

Blackholes are massive stars that have collapsed towards its end of life. When they collapsed into smaller and smaller size, the gravity of the stars still remain as enormous. There comes a point when the gravity is so greatly concentrated into a small area that light fails to escape, forming blackholes.

However, we know that light can be "bent" or refracted. When light passed through a medium, such as water or glass, the light is refracted. At certain angle when light passes from a denser to a lighter density medium, the light actually bends inward. This phenomenon is called, Total Internal Reflection. Light is not refracted out of the medium

We also know that light can be "bent" when it passed through an object with huge gravitational pull, such as the Sun. Light from distance stars has been observed to be bent by the gravity of the Sun.

Without any evidence or mathematical derivation, I would like to hypothesize that because of the great gravity in a blackhole, the light from the star is being "refracted" internally or inwards, such that no light can be seen from a blackhole. It is not the current belief that light cannot escape from the gravity. But light is being reflected due to gravity, similar to the observation in Total Internal Reflection.

This is just my hypothesis. Blackholes being very far away, I will have challenges in proving such a theory. Perhaps it will take more than a hundred years to determine if it is true. Of course, the hypothesis could be wrong and there are other reasons why light cannot 'escape' in a blackhole. 

Hypothesized in August 2020. 

Historical Moments - Coronavirus COVID 19

18 March 2020 - Morning 8am, Causeway Bridge between Singapore and Malaysia
First time in history since World War 2; there was so little traffic on Wednesday, a working day in Singapore. Any conventional working day would have seen long line of cars waiting to clear custom. This is because Malaysia has due to growing health concern on Coronavirus restricted all Malaysian from travelling abroad, including by land to Singapore. This is a historical moment.

On the same night, the DOW Index has dropped below 20,000 points from a high of more than 29,000 just a few weeks ago.

It just reminded me of a game I had played when I was boy. The mouse was eaten by the cat and the dog, the tiger and eventually by the lion. The lion was killed by the stampede of the elephant. But the elephant could be destroyed by the mouse. Similarly, humans are almost invincible but vulnerable to an invisible virus so small that we can't see.

A gentle reminder to regularly wash hand with soap and reduce the times that your hand and fingers touching the face. Basic hygiene that could save us from infection.

Star Wars - The Rise of Skywalker

Watched the film recently. This is the 10th (including Rouge One) films I've watched in s cinema since the first film in 1976. Some comments:-

1) Jedi can revive the dead. First time seen in Star Wars Series. If this can be done, the many Jedi purged during Order 66 would have been revived.

2) Zorii Bliss looks like a female Power Ranger.

3) Kyle Ren black Tie Fighter is very cool.

4) Incredible to see Han Solo, Leia, Luke Skywalker, C3PO, R2D2, Chewbacca and Lando again. All these characters are from the first trilogy. The major characters not present are Darth Vader and Obi Wan.

5) Awesome to see the X-wing fighter of Luke Skywalker.

6) A powerful Sith Lord like Palpatine, made the same mistake twice. First in Star Wars Return of the Jedi, where he used the trick of getting Luke Skywalker close to him and showed to Luke the failure of the rebellion attack plan, but was subsequently 'killed' by Darth Vader. Second in Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker where he tricked Rey close to him and used the same method of showing Rey the failure of Resistance fleet against the many Star Destroyers, but again was vapourised by Rey's Lightsaber. How could a master Sith Lord make the same mistake?

7) The storyline of how they make the death of Leia coincide with the death of Carrie Fisher in real life is nice and appropriate. Fantastic to see her shed tears in this last movie of hers.

8) Darth Vader was so much better in creating fear to audience than the old Palpatine.

9) Amazed by how things and bodies can be teleported a distance apart. Fight between Rey and Kyle Ren located at 2 different places mean that one person can teleport to another location to carry out assassination.

Malaysia Property

In recent weeks, I was trying to gather information on Malaysian properties since the Government of Malaysia has announced that foreigners minimum purchase price of apartments and condominium was reduced to RM600,000.

With the Internet and various property related websites available, it is easy to make a comparison between property in Singapore and Malaysia.

In Malaysia, a landed freehold terrace house just across the Strait in Johor Bahru is available for a price of RM800,000 (USD198,000) or lower if further away from downtown. For landed property, foreigner can only purchase for value more than RM1 Million (USD248,000) and above.

In Singapore, a similar landed freehold terrace house will cost between S$1.8 Million (USD 1.33 Million) to $2.2 Million(USD 1.63 Million) depending on location.

Comparing the prices, the difference in price between a landed freehold property in Singapore and Malaysia is eight times higher. For that eight times higher in price, you will get:-

1) Better security. Less chance of house burglary. Less chance of robbery.
2) A more stable currency that is less likely to depreciate.
3) A economy with better job opportunity and less corruption.
4) A better internet speed connection.
5) A better health care system and specialist.
6) Reduce geopolitical risk involving the country. While Malaysia is generally stable, the future is uncertain and there is risk that the current political parties will be in discord and may fail to win the majority.

However to a retiring Singapore, some of the points mentioned above do not matter because:-

1) House can be guarded with security services.
2) Major asset can still be in S$ or USD or in equities.
3) Job opportunity doesn't matter if a person is retired. Cost of living does.
4) Internet speed doesn't matter if not for gaming. Higher price for faster internet access is available.
5) Retiree has to come back to Singapore for medical treatment.
6) Geopolitical risk is not easy to quantify. It can be avoided if not investing at all but avoidance comes with opportunity costs.

Properties in both Singapore and Malaysia will be subjected to ancillary costs such as lawyer fees, transfer fees, property tax, utilities bills etc.

The other point to make is that at a median household income of about S$9000 in 2017. It would take a household about 18.5 years just to afford a landed freehold terrace house in Singapore, without other expenses. Of course, the government does not guarantee that every Singaporean can afford a landed house due to land scarcity. Affordability comes only with public housing. However, using the same argument, one may ask why would the same Government allow foreigners to be permanent resident or citizen, hence pushing the price of property indirectly? It is still demand and supply in economics of pricing. Making house ownership beyond the reach of ordinary true blue Singaporean.

On the other hand, the reason why the Malaysia Government allows for a reduced price for property purchase by foreigners is to address the high number of unsold units. The rule only applies for 1 year unless there is further extension. This mean that after 1 year, the price limitation for foreigners will be reverted back to RM1 Million. The owner who bought units at RM600,000 can only sell it back to locals if value cannot rise beyond RM1 Million. This would limit the demand and ultimately affect the price. The only logical reason why any purchasers would want to make use of this reduced price policy would then be long term ownership.

Looking at Johor Bahru, the bulk of units available for sale that meets the criteria of more than RM600,000 would probably be those apartments in R&F Princess Cove, Country Garden in Danga Bay area and Forest City. These are buildings constructed on reclaimed land. There is added risk of ground settlement in long term.

For retirees wishing to retire in a place with lower cost of living but without the hassle of paying huge savings in purchasing asset, the possible alternative would be leasing.  Considering that some apartments can be leased for as low as RM1500 and for proper landed unit to be rent for RM2000 monthly. The expenditure over 10 years would only be RM240,000 (USD60000) for landed property. This avoided the geopolitical risk as well as the risk involving in investing in Malaysia currency. The only downside after 10 years is that there is no asset to own, or sell.

Solar Eclipse 26 December 2019

Solar Eclipse (technically called Annular Solar Eclipse) happened today at about 1:23pm, Singapore time. The moon covered the sun starting from midday. There was significant darkening of the sky.

The next annular solar eclipse in Singapore would have happened in 2063 (44 years later). I would have been 6 ft under earth.

Photos were taken by my youngest daughter, using a mobile phone camera.

Honda Civic FC 2019

I have sold my Audi A3 Sportback and bought a Honda Civic FC. This is at a time when COE is supposed to be at its low end due to uncertainty in the economy.

Audi
I have owned the Audi A3 Sportback for 5 years and 9 months. The good thing about the car is a powerful 1.4 turbo engine and a good brake stopping distance. A fantastic fuel consumption of 14km/litre. It also has a reputable brand although its internal parts are from VW Golf.  The bad things are :-

1) Lousy Dual Clutch transmission. Noise from its transmission and a total failure of its mechatronic unit. Audi Singapore charged me more than S$4000 plus even though there was dispute on the warranty of the car. I am highly displeased with this service and asserted that I would never buy a Audi car again.

2) Poor battery. Failed every year. They are original battery from Audi. This is not typical for a car.

3) Turbo lagged. The car is either slow or very fast. The smoothness of transmission is missing. Before the turbo kicks in, it is still a underpowered 1.4 litre car. I cannot imagine the new Audi A3 with 1 litre motor.

4) The 7 speed transmission automatic kicks down when slope is detected which makes the journey rather unpleasant, even though there is no necessity.

5) Start Stop function which I think is unnecessary.

Honda
I have driven the Thailand made Honda Civic FC for more than 3 months. It is a reliable car with no noise from its moving parts. Driver has a piece of mind on quality of product as I have driven the Honda Stream for 9 years previously. However, it has its deficiency. They are:-

1) Underpowered car which it is paired with a CVT. The CVT is like a turbo, it needs time to spool up the transfer of power from motor to wheels. As many car expert would say, CVT is like an elastic rubber band. The underpowered car is more severely felt if the fuel is just Ron 95. I have to use Ron 98 to compensate the lack of power and to achieve a smoother drive. This means I have to pay for more for fuel. In fact, the Suzuki Swift is more fun to drive although it is just 1 litre car with a turbo. I was contemplating between a Suziki Swift or Honda Civic.

2) Better fuel consumption than my 1.7 litre Honda stream but poorer than Audi A3. Average fuel consumption is about 12 to 12.5 km/litre.

3) Poor radio reception. The sound from its radio is the worst I have seen in all my life of car ownership. The head unit has other function tied in, eg aircon, car settings which make it difficult to change.

4) Servicing is every 10,000 km. Likely to mean twice a year compared to Audi which is once a year servicing.

There are good points such as brake-hold, spacious car, reliable quality, reasonably price parts, lower insurance etc. It serves well as a point to point transportation car. Honda Civic is commonly seen on road which doesn't make it unique. Hope my simple review is useful for potential buyers.

Lee Iacocca Dies

Mr Lee Iacocca passed away on 2 Jul 2019 at the age of 94. I used to read his book Iacocca An Autobiography back in the late 1980s. He has given insight to readers of his formidable tenacity to manage a troubled car company, Chrysler and successfully brought it back to life.

Rest in peace.

SGD $2 Million

Back in 20 March 2015, I wrote that I had achieved a SGD 1 million status.

https://e21s.blogspot.com/2015/03/sgd-1-million.html

4 years on, I am pleased to say that I have achieved a SGD 2 million in financial assets, excluding property value, central provident fund (CPF) and monies in insurance.

This is achieved through hardwork, investments, savings and inheritance.

In Singapore context, the quantum is still a small sum. Considering that a decent private landed house cost more than SGD 2 million.

Warren Buffett 2019 Annual Letter to Shareholders

"In the years ahead, we hope to move much of our excess liquidity into businesses that Berkshire will permanently own. The immediate prospects for that, however, are not good: Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects."

Warren Buffett on his massive US$112 Billion in cash/cash equivalent (Feb 2019)

To me, that is one of the more important message from Buffett's letter to shareholders. Pretty much clear indication of where the stock market is heading in the short/medium term. I am just wondering whether he will put more of his cash into Kraft Heinz. On Friday the price of Kraft Heinz shares dropped a significant 27%.

Charlie Munger Interesting Advices

Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway had an interview with CNBC Becky Quick. Here are a few quotes which I think are interesting:-

On Question whether the golden era of investing is over
"Now is tougher. …… The valuations have come up. And the competition sorting through those opportunities is more intelligent and more aggressive and more numerous. Of course it's harder."

On Munger's generation of investors
"The opportunities that we all remember came from a demoralized period when about 90% of the natural stock buyers got very discouraged with stocks. That's what created the opportunity for these fabulous records that my generation had. And that was a rare opportunity that came to a rare group of people of whom I was one. And Warren was another."

On US politics and government
"Sometimes the Democrats are in, sometimes the Republicans. In my lifetime, the country run better, net, because we had two parties, each of which was partly in control. If either party had been totally in control of all branches of the government, I think we would be way worse off today."

On US national debt which has reached US$22 Trillion
"Yeah, we're in new territory...… Well, I don't worry much, because every era is a cinch that a great nation will, in due time, be ruined. So I -- time and -- whether it's Rome, where is Britain in its heyday, they all pass. And so our turn is bound to come someday. But I don't like thinking about it too much. It's like my own death. Why should I enjoy thinking about it? But is it coming some day? Sure. Of course it is."

Worries on Nuclear Bombs
"Its a nuclear war. A nuclear war would be a real, real disaster. Global warming is something we could cope with if we had to. But a nuclear war is - that's - that is really serious."

Anything that rises to Munger radar screen now that may be under the radar for other people
"Well, nobody knows how much of this money printing we can do..... That we can ignore the whole subject and just print money as convenient. Well, that's the way the Roman Empire behaved, then it was ruined. And that's the way the Weimar Republic was ruined. And - it's - there is a point where it's dangerous. You know, and of course, my attitude when something is big and dangerous is to stay a long way away from it......"

A display in Dachau Concentration Camp showing the effect of printing money in Germany

On what are the secret to life is, to a long and happy life
"You don't have a lot of envy, you don't have a lot of resentment, you don't overspend your income, you stay cheerful in spite of your troubles. You deal with reliable people and you do what you're supposed to do. And all these simple rules work so well to make your life better. And they're so trite.|"
"And-- staying cheerful -- with -- because it's a wise thing to do. Is that so hard? And can you be cheerful when you're absolutely mired in deep hatred and resentment? Of course you can't. So why would you take it on?"

On raising children
"I have not -- many of my children have worked out well. And I've had very little to do with it. I think they come into the world, to a certain extent, pre-made. And you just sit there and watch. I don't think they're -- it's been simply amazing to me a parent to note know much is sort of preordained. The shy baby is the shy adult. The booming, obnoxious, domineering baby is the booming, domineering, obnoxious adult. I've never found a way to fix that. I can be cheerful about it, but I can't fix it. I can change my reaction, but I can't change the outcome."

Feb 2019.
Credit: CNBC

Emirates Economy Class Review

I took Emirates Economy Class to Dubai, a seven hours trip.

Here is my review:-

1) Food - Emirates has better food than Qatar Airlines. The food was tasty enough for me. The drinks were sufficiently served with a bar cart that followed behind the main meal cart. Singapore Airlines has equally good food comparable to Emirates.  However, China Southern Airlines stewardesses routinely walked along the isle asking passengers whether they want water. This service from China Southern Airlines is commendable for long flights

2) Flight Seat - Whether Singapore Airlines, Qatar Airlines or Emirates lines, the space available for economy class does not differ significantly. However, because Qatar and Emirates are flying connecting flights, ie Dubai or Doha are used as a base to consolidate passengers. Their flights are mostly full. This means that the chance of an empty seats is very low.  Singapore Airlines has a higher probability of an empty seat next to you.

3) Service - No difference between Singapore, Qatar or Emirates. You don't see the stewardesses in economy class after the meals are served. China Southern Airlines stewardesses do make routine rounds to address passenger needs. China Southern Airlines stewardess even perform their appreciation message for international flight.

4) Planes - All Singapore, Qatar or Emirates are rather new. I notice that Emirates and Qatar switch on their mood lighting with beautiful stars filled ceiling. Beautiful. Singapore Airlines does not switch on its mood lighting for economy section.

5) Baggage Handling - Both Emirates and Qatar airlines are disappointment. For Emirates, my luggage was found damage after flight. For Qatar, my luggage was found to be opened and my suit soiled after flight. I have no such problem with Singapore Airlines or China Southern Airlines. So it is advisable to bring a durable luggage when travelling with Emirates or Qatar airlines.

Founding of Singapore - 200 Years

Sir Stamford Raffles arrived on the island of Singapore on 28 January 1819. Back in 1819, Singapore has an indigenous population of about 150 people.

Today is the 200th anniversary of Raffles arrival. Our population has grown to about 6 million people, crowded onto a small island. Raffles had set up a trading post in Singapore which allowed it to prosper given its strategic location between Europe, India and China, Japan. This is despite an absence of natural resources.

Dubai Skyscrapers Part 2

Dubai Creek Tower model at Dubai Mall

Not only is the Burj Khalifa not tall enough at 830m, the UAE is building another structure which is 1.2 to 1.3 km tall. It is known as the Dubai Creek Tower. The tower as shown in the photo above is a slender structure with cable like supports. It looks like a tall rocket that is about to blast off to space. Around the centre of this tower lies observatory decks.

Obviously, it doesn't come cheap. This is another project to showcase Arabs wealth.

While it is another engineering feat making the engineers laughing to the banks, it doesn't makes economical sense. The monies could be spent on research that could make human lives better, reduce the number of hunger death, reduce pollution, reduce climate impact, lower risk of terrorism, improve cultural appreciation etc.

It just reminds me of the Tower of Babel mentioned in the Book of Genesis of the Old Testament.

Dubai Blue Sky

Being a desert climate, there is little rain all year round. I took a picture of the blue sky which show a cloudless sky. The blue is unedited and natural.

Dubai Skyscrapers

The quantity of skyscrapers in Dubai is amazing. There are so many construction works on-going in the city that one wonders whether there are real buyers to these real estate. They are building condos, hotels, malls and offices everywhere along the main spine (where the metro lies).

While there are attempts to go Green through the use of solar panels, this cannot be said for design of infrastructure, eg the volume of chilled water required for cooling space is tremendous. The volume of water needed to make the landscape looks green is huge. Otherwise it will just be desert sand. Dubai uses desalination techniques to extract water from the sea. Without energy (from petrol or gas), the malls, offices will not work. But there is a certain lifespan for energy even though it is available cheaply in this region. There seems to be an emphasis on extravagant, from artificial pool (in a desert), creek, reclamation from desert sand and massive tall buildings

Dubai is traditionally a trading hub. One can see in its Gold Souk and the spice trades. But trading should not give supernormal profits. While I understand that the government of UAE is trying their best to diversify to non-oil industry, there must be development in pace of demand. Expats will simply leave in times of economic crisis.

What I like about Dubai is the availability of cheap petrol and relatively cheap car prices. Eg Mitsubishi Attrage is about 36000 Dirham. There is 5% value added tax. Food prices are comparable to Singapore prices. Winter climate is fantastic.

Dubai Architecture

Other than the skyscrapers, Dubai traditional looking buildings do have certain architectural identity such as the cantilever protruded feature , the curve opening with Islamic details and the circular roof. These traditional design looks good on modern buildings and is unique to this region. I also notice that many buildings have limited opening/windows due to the possibility of sand storm. This impedes natural ventilation but nowadays they are cooled by air-conditioning.

Dubai Food

In the 5 days in Dubai, I have not eaten sufficient local dishes to give a conclusive comment on the food. But I notice that Dubai has a variety of food, mainly focusing on Arabs, Indians and Western dishes.  These are the food I have eaten and some little comments:-

Wimpy at Naif Street - This is the best street food I have eaten. It is simple Kebab which cost just 5 Dirham. The melon juice cost 10 Dirham which was one of the best melon juice I had. I believe the restaurant may have added milk into the juice. Simple and tasty meal near the Gold Souk. I would recommend it.

Indian Food - The first photo below shows Chicken Briyani. It was prepared with spices and yoghurt. It was well prepared and the chicken is tender and tasty. The food was purchased and served to us.  The second photo shows food taken from an Indian restaurant. It was beautifully prepared and tasty. It was of course expensive.

Iranian Food - The restaurant was recommended by a youtuber. There were many photos of celebrities and even royalties who had visited the restaurant. I had mutton kebab as shown which cost 32 Dirham. The food was a bit dry despite of the yoghurt which tasted too sour for my liking. Somehow, I thought there would be better dishes which I could order.

Kebab Fast-food in Dubai Mall - I guessed this was a Turkish kebab (but could be wrong). It cost me 23 Dirham. The accompanied sauce was good but there was no vegetables. They gave 3 dough which I could not finish.

Dubai UAE 13 - 17 Jan 19

Dubai Old Town near Gold Souk

I am in Dubai, UAE from 13 Jan 19 to 17 Jan 19 on a work trip.

First Impression
- Largely influenced by UK standard - from power plug, widely used of English, English radio stations that play British singers songs, eg U2 etc.
- Not so many Chinese influx as compared to Japan. Filipinos are working mainly in service industry.
- Mainly Arabs and Indians.
- Just separated with Iran with just one Strait. At the time of visit, Israel had just attacked Iranian targets in Syria.
- Many Spices trading. I bought one of the most expensive spice in the world, Saffron at 20 Dirham for 2 gram (20 Dirham is equivalent to SGD $7.60 or USD$5.4). It smells good.
- A simple train service with only 2 lines - Green and Red. The NOL card for train costs 25 Dirham has a value of 19 Dirham.
- Street food is almost same price as Singapore. One simple meal cost 15 Dirham (SGD5.70) comprises of kebab and a fruit drinks.
- Weather in January is good at 23 degree Celsius. Good for walking around.
- Still many construction works in Dubai city, showing infrastructural development and the abundance oil money and wealth.

Written in Dubai

Goldman Sachs

2 years ago, on 8 December 2016, I wrote on the Blog that I sold away my Goldman Sachs at a price of US$234.50 and made a good profit.

On 20 Dec 18, the Dow Jones had dropped to a level of 22,859 from its peak of 26,959. A drop of 15% from its peak. A piece of Goldman Sachs is now priced at slightly more than US$168, compared to US$275, more than US$100 off this peak. I bought some of the equity back.

Is there down side risk? Yes, certainly there is with this current bear market. This is expected due to investor irrationalism. Is there up side gain? Yes, in the long term. The PE ratio currently is just 12.29.

Warren Buffett owns this equity. It has made him many good profits. It has made me some good profit. Happy Investing!

Tokyo Yamanote Line

Yamanote Line in 1963 - Screen capture from YouTube Michael Rogge film

Yamanote Line in 2018 with familiar lime green colour

Back in 1993, when I first visited Japan. Hotel Metropolitan, in Ikebukuro was where I had stayed and the Yamanote Line was the first train line I had taken. Japan was the first country I had travelled located at more than 5 hours in flight from my home. It had opened my eyes to the world beyond South East Asia. It had bullet train, Sony electronics, Matsushita electronics, Hitachi, Toyota cars, Honda cars etc. An economic power house. In 1993, Japan was at the start of recession. It had enjoyed economic growth since WW2 and lasted till early 1990s. Since then Japan inflation is close to zero. Back in 1993, a meal could be bought for 1000 yen or less. In 2018, 25 years later, a meal could still be bought for less than 1000 yen. (eg Ramen).

Back to Yamanote, the line was first opened back in 1885. It was unique in that it circled the major Tokyo metropolitan cities with line distance of 34.5km (21 mile). Ikebukuro is one of the city. Back in 1993, the Yamanote was a green line with the train highlighted in lime green. I remembered taking the first ride from Ikebukuro to Ueno Station. Till this date, the Yamanote is still a green line. Somehow, in 2018, I did not find the Yamanote line to be so crowded. On the other hand, I found that Chuo Line was much more crowded during peak hour and physically it was packed till the door.

The other difference is that now, the announcement in train station could include Japanese, English and Chinese. Back in 1993, it was first only the first and second language. A change in economic circumstances.

Nonetheless, it was really memorable to seat on Yamanote line and also equally memorable was the sound of the periodic train track vibration which was so unique of Japan.

Tokyo Asakusa

The photos above were unedited other than adding copyright note. They were taken in the evening in Asakusa where there were fewer people and a cooler weather. As I did not bring along my travelling bag, the photos were taken with my iPhone 7.  I was pretty impressed with the camera of iPhone. Just look at how brilliant the red colour of the shrine was and how sharp the photos were. Beautiful! While there were many negative comments comparing iPhone and other Android phones in technical specifications, to me it is the output that matters. Despite a simple single lens camera, it was able to produce result comparable, if not better, than my Sony APS-C (A6000) camera even at dim night conditions. The price of iPhone is of course a premium over Android phones, but the overall user satisfaction is still guaranteed with a iPhone. That is after more than 2 years owning the iPhone 7.

I have been to Asakusa many years ago, but this is the first time I have been there at night with not so many people and the weather was cooling. The experience was magnificent.

Tokyo Food

Ramen and in this case Ichiran Ramen. Famous among foreigners. There was a queue formed to pay for the food. Overall it is tasty without sensing MSG. It should be made by boiling pigs bone for a long period of time. Thick broth makes a rick taste. At 870 Yen, it is reasonably priced considering other Ramen outlets. Was told that Ichiran originates from Kyushu region of Japan. This is the most value for money against its quality for the food I had.

Okonomiyaki - Japanese Pizza. The one on the left has flour and bacon, while the one on the right has noodle and flour. Tasty due to okonomiyaki sauce. It is highly recommended. The set cost about 1850 Yen for 2 persons including drinks. The restaurant at UDX Akihabara allows patrons to self cook or the chef will cook for you. It tastes real good.

Beef tongue croquette. When I walked into this restaurant, I thought it was a beef restaurant without knowing that they sell only beef tongue. I have the impression that it was beef croquette, probably due to my poor understanding of the language. Nonetheless I tried it. This was not the first time I ate beef tongue though. Its more of psychological than the taste and texture. It was quite expensive at about 1600 Yen.

Tempura soba. The soba is ok but there were only 2 pieces of prawn and one small green chilli. Priced at 1470 Yen, it seems expensive. But this is a famous shop in Asakusa. Quality wise the prawns are fresh and sweet.

Pufferfish - Also known "fugu". I had this in soup and fried format. Japanese delicacies. Poisonous if not prepared properly. Certain part of the fish is lethal and originates from its ovaries and liver. It must be prepared by a certified chef to remove the poison. Taste like ordinary fish and has many bones. Expensive at 10,000 yen for 2 persons. Would I try again? Probably not, considering the risk and price.

Unagi rice. The grilled eel is very expensive in Japan given the strong demand in Asia market. Many eels are originated from China or Taiwan. I paid 3700 Yen for this. Taste wise, I have tasted better one. This one has too many fine bones which disturbed the enjoyment. The meat is ok but the sauce could be better. There are cheaper ones around Tokyo.

Sake - Taste good and reasonably priced. This one costs about 250 Yen. Slight sweetness makes the sake easy to drink. Available in convenient stall.